Date Published 17 September 2012
Rightmove's latest Consumer Rental Forecast finds that six in ten (60%) tenants expect to be paying more for their rented accommodation in 12 months' time, up from 53% a year ago.
In a market where the supply of rental properties is failing to keep pace with high demand from tenants across most of the UK, the anticipation of upwards rental pressure is greater among tenants in London and the South East.
66% of tenants in London and 62% in the South East expect to be paying more for rented accommodation in a years' time. This news is likely to be disheartening to tenants in these regions who are already feeling the squeeze on personal incomes more than most. 31% of tenants in the South East and 29% in London are already spending more than 50% of ‘take-home' pay on rent, both above the national average of 26%.
Miles Shipside, director and housing market analyst at Rightmove, comments: `The view from the majority of tenants across the country is that rents are only likely to go one way, and that's up.
London and the surrounding commuter belt of the South East have the greatest proportion of respondents predicting higher rents, suggesting that these markets are most at risk of ‘over-heating' and most in need of further investment from investor-landlords. The continuing heat applied to rents is a double-whammy for the one in two tenants that would like to buy but can't afford to.
These ‘trapped renters' are faced with the prospect of a downward spiral where spending more income on rent also means saving less for a deposit`.
The property investors being courted strongly by buy-to-let lenders are those with access to substantial deposit funds and who have identified properties with attractive monthly rental income to monthly repayment ratios. This group, considered ‘serial landlords' as they have invested in buyto-let property more than once before, is critical to helping deliver the level of supply required to
satisfy the stock-starved rental sector. Of those intending to buy an investment property in the next 12 months, the highest proportions of ‘serial landlords' tend to be in northern regions where capital values are lower. 37% of likely investors in Wales and the North East are serial landlords, as are 35% in the Scotland and 34% in the North West. The really ‘hot' lettings markets of London and the South
East, where property prices are higher, are regions with the lowest levels of experienced landlords intending to add to their portfolios.
Shipside observes: `Serial landlords seem more active in northern regions, perhaps attracted by lower capital values, and yet it is the London-centric regions that are most in need of supply-side investment. This will potentially give some renters in the north greater choice and take some of the pace out of rent rises, but will be of concern to some London and commuter-belt tenants where
upwards pressure on rents is even more extreme.`
Rightmove's research shows that an average return for a rental property is currently greater in many of the more northern regions than in London and the South East. The average rental yield in the North East is 6.5%, the highest in the UK ahead of North West (6.4%) and Wales (6.2%). In contrast, primarily because of the higher capital values in the south, investors in London are seeing an average
rental yield of 5.7%, and in the South East 5.6%.
Shipside adds: `For the most attractive and immediate rental returns, the north wins. Investors in London and its surrounds may eventually find that the streets are paved with gold, but they'll have to wait and see what happens to capital values just to find out. The statistics also show that more experienced investors are interested in securing a steady northern-based return now rather than a
potential gain some years hence further south. If you need to supplement your pension income stream in the near future, immediate returns for a lower capital outlay have a strong appeal. Lower entry costs further north also mean an investor can buy more property units, spreading the risk rather than perhaps having all their eggs in one basket with a higher value single investment further